I don't know, you decide...

1. How does this topic fit into what I have learned already in this course?
Ch 12 was all about deductive reasoning and decision making. Four major principles discussed in this chapter- 1. belief bias effect 2. confirmation bias 3. illusory correlation 4. anchoring and adjustment heuristic, all rely on top down processing. However, each bias has underlying factors or principles from previous chapters that effect the results. The confirmation bias uses the concept from chapter three that people prefer to recall positive stimuli rather than negative, thus the desire to confirm a prediction rather than disprove it. In addition, it is clear that these two concepts: deductive reasoning and decision making, clearly relate and impact one another.

2. What am I still not clear on in this week's reading(s)?
I don't know what my problem is, but I have read and reread the confirmation bias example multiple times and I still don't believe that the 7 card is "just as valuable as the information on the other side of the E card". I agree that the 7 card can disprove the theory, but it can also not do anything for the theory if there is a consonant on the other side of the card. Therefore, I think that if you could only turn one card over, then the E card would have to be it because it is either going to accept or reject the rule.

Another thing, I dont believe in the law of numbers... I think that 60% of the children born at any give hospital will be boys, regardless if there are 500 people at one and 20 at another. If we are looking at random occurrences, the number should not change the probability. We don't say that there is a better chance that if we flip a coin 20 times, 10 will be heads than if we were just to flip it once and receive heads. Either way our probability is 1/2!

3. Under what conditions would I apply this material to my own teaching/work?
Well, a big part of education is teaching children to solve problems and make decisions- in math, geography, and science. Teaching the reasoning behind the method enables students to control their thoughts and predictions, rather than just go on "instincts". It also provides students with better opportunities to think about the outside factors impacting the situation rather than just what is presented in the curriculum. If all of these factors, bias, and heuristics are truly effecting our decision making, I think it is best to confront and think about them rather than ignore and silently let them distort our ideas and perceptions!